Experiment
Rewind Lab
Can a state-of-the-art forecasting AI beat the simplest guess of all, “the price won’t change”?
We rewound to hundreds of past days. Each time the model saw only the gold prices known that day, forecast the weeks ahead, and was scored against what really happened. Click anywhere on the chart to rewind yourself, or play “Beat the model”.
Model: TimesFM 2.5 (200M)Data: gold-api.com daily average (XAU/USD)
20 trading days ahead · 519 rewinds
A tie.
TimesFM 2.5 (200M) against the simplest possible forecast: “the price won’t change”. Across every rewind, their average misses are within 2% of each other.
TimesFM 2.5 (200M)
$102
average miss
No-change guess
$103
average miss
Direction right
56%
A coin flip gets 50%. With about 78 non-overlapping 20-day windows, this is within chance.
80% range caught reality
74%
The actual price landed inside the model's range 74% of the time: short of the 80% it promises, so it is a little overconfident.
Days the model was closer
53%
Share of rewinds where the model's median beat the no-change guess.
2021–2026 · click anywhere to rewind
$1,764 → $4,145High $5,459
Low $1,629
20222023202420252026
Gold priceModel median80% rangeNo-change guess
Show this chart as a table
| Date | Gold | Model median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Jun 20, 2026 | $4,156.70 | ||
| Sun, Jun 21, 2026 | $4,156.41 | ||
| Mon, Jun 22, 2026 | $4,193.14 | ||
| Tue, Jun 23, 2026 | $4,128.47 | ||
| Wed, Jun 24, 2026 | $4,038.45 | ||
| Thu, Jun 25, 2026 | $4,007.01 | ||
| Fri, Jun 26, 2026 | $4,051.25 | ||
| Sat, Jun 27, 2026 | $4,090.60 | ||
| Sun, Jun 28, 2026 | $4,088.50 | ||
| Mon, Jun 29, 2026 | $4,040.58 | ||
| Tue, Jun 30, 2026 | $4,012.68 | ||
| Wed, Jul 1, 2026 | $4,020.77 | ||
| Thu, Jul 2, 2026 | $4,092.27 | ||
| Fri, Jul 3, 2026 | $4,174.55 | ||
| Sat, Jul 4, 2026 | $4,176.10 | ||
| Sun, Jul 5, 2026 | $4,177.12 | ||
| Mon, Jul 6, 2026 | $4,159.48 | ||
| Tue, Jul 7, 2026 | $4,134.72 | ||
| Wed, Jul 8, 2026 | $4,085.15 | ||
| Thu, Jul 9, 2026 | $4,106.82 | ||
| Fri, Jul 10, 2026 | $4,112.12 | ||
| Sat, Jul 11, 2026 | $4,121.40 | ||
| Sun, Jul 12, 2026 | $4,117.98 | ||
| Mon, Jul 13, 2026 | $4,040.56 | ||
| Tue, Jul 14, 2026 | $4,040.20 | ||
| Wed, Jul 15, 2026 | $4,046.13 | ||
| Thu, Jul 16, 2026 | $4,012.54 | ||
| Fri, Jul 17, 2026 | $4,000.14 | ||
| Sat, Jul 18, 2026 | $4,019.30 | ||
| Sun, Jul 19, 2026 | $4,017.39 | ||
| Mon, Jul 20, 2026 | $4,013.07 | ||
| Tue, Jul 21, 2026 | $4,063.48 | ||
| Wed, Jul 22, 2026 | $4,129.42 | ||
| Thu, Jul 23, 2026 | $4,082.68 | ||
| Fri, Jul 24, 2026 | $4,052.19 | ||
| Sat, Jul 25, 2026 | $4,053.70 | ||
| Sun, Jul 26, 2026 | $4,056.70 | ||
| Mon, Jul 27, 2026 | $4,088.48 | ||
| Tue, Jul 28, 2026 | $4,037.31 | ||
| Wed, Jul 29, 2026 | $4,040.21 | ||
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | $4,083.01 | ||
| Fri, Jul 31, 2026 | $4,060.06 | ||
| Sat, Aug 1, 2026 | $4,043.70 | ||
| Sun, Aug 2, 2026 | $4,045.88 | ||
| Mon, Aug 3, 2026 | $4,053.05 | ||
| Tue, Aug 4, 2026 | $4,070.50 | ||
| Wed, Aug 5, 2026 | $4,191.38 | ||
| Thu, Aug 6, 2026 | $4,260.04 | ||
| Fri, Aug 7, 2026 | $4,312.57 | ||
| Sat, Aug 8, 2026 | $4,343.30 | ||
| Sun, Aug 9, 2026 | $4,343.36 | ||
| Mon, Aug 10, 2026 | $4,353.34 | ||
| Tue, Aug 11, 2026 | $4,386.24 | ||
| Wed, Aug 12, 2026 | $4,408.39 | ||
| Thu, Aug 13, 2026 | $4,380.86 | ||
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | $4,359.10 | ||
| Sat, Aug 15, 2026 | $4,377.60 | ||
| Sun, Aug 16, 2026 | $4,377.59 | ||
| Mon, Aug 17, 2026 | $4,405.58 | ||
| Tue, Aug 18, 2026 | $4,381.23 | ||
| Wed, Aug 19, 2026 | $4,421.81 | ||
| Thu, Aug 20, 2026 | $4,502.14 | ||
| Fri, Aug 21, 2026 | $4,580.88 | ||
| Sat, Aug 22, 2026 | $4,604.40 | ||
| Sun, Aug 23, 2026 | $4,605.19 | ||
| Mon, Aug 24, 2026 | $4,648.72 | ||
| Tue, Aug 25, 2026 | $4,647.37 | ||
| Wed, Aug 26, 2026 | $4,621.66 | ||
| Thu, Aug 27, 2026 | $4,605.97 | ||
| Fri, Aug 28, 2026 | $4,548.69 | ||
| Sat, Aug 29, 2026 | $4,456.40 | ||
| Sun, Aug 30, 2026 | $4,456.51 | ||
| Mon, Aug 31, 2026 | $4,440.44 | ||
| Tue, Sep 1, 2026 | $4,382.44 | ||
| Wed, Sep 2, 2026 | $4,345.18 | ||
| Thu, Sep 3, 2026 | $4,451.99 | ||
| Fri, Sep 4, 2026 | $4,452.08 | ||
| Sat, Sep 5, 2026 | $4,431.10 | ||
| Sun, Sep 6, 2026 | $4,430.95 | ||
| Mon, Sep 7, 2026 | $4,407.31 | ||
| Tue, Sep 8, 2026 | $4,398.23 | $4,398.23 | $4,398 – $4,398 |
| Wed, Sep 9, 2026 | $4,397.28 | $4,394.34 | $4,311 – $4,481 |
| Thu, Sep 10, 2026 | $4,374.75 | $4,387.33 | $4,289 – $4,499 |
| Fri, Sep 11, 2026 | $4,348.14 | $4,389.23 | $4,266 – $4,521 |
| Sat, Sep 12, 2026 | $4,349.70 | $4,379.09 | $4,235 – $4,524 |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | $4,348.71 | $4,387.09 | $4,236 – $4,554 |
| Mon, Sep 14, 2026 | $4,307.97 | $4,379.87 | $4,211 – $4,563 |
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | $4,292.21 | $4,384.98 | $4,204 – $4,578 |
| Wed, Sep 16, 2026 | $4,316.58 | $4,377.67 | $4,187 – $4,591 |
| Thu, Sep 17, 2026 | $4,331.25 | $4,379.55 | $4,178 – $4,605 |
| Fri, Sep 18, 2026 | $4,373.60 | $4,374.36 | $4,153 – $4,620 |
| Sat, Sep 19, 2026 | $4,379.00 | $4,375.09 | $4,145 – $4,634 |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | $4,378.75 | $4,371.53 | $4,120 – $4,643 |
| Mon, Sep 21, 2026 | $4,355.20 | $4,365.56 | $4,125 – $4,656 |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | $4,340.57 | $4,365.20 | $4,091 – $4,673 |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | $4,311.87 | $4,370.79 | $4,094 – $4,697 |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | $4,274.62 | $4,357.20 | $4,066 – $4,693 |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | $4,286.02 | $4,361.92 | $4,064 – $4,716 |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | $4,286.20 | $4,364.08 | $4,057 – $4,719 |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | $4,284.47 | $4,361.40 | $4,040 – $4,756 |
| Mon, Sep 28, 2026 | $4,158.11 | $4,358.00 | $4,024 – $4,766 |
Rewound to
Tue, Sep 8, 2026
Gold closed at $4,398.23
Looking 20 trading days ahead, to Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Model median
$4,358.00
80% range $4,024 – $4,766
No-change guess
$4,398.23
What actually happened
$4,158.11
Model closer by $40Inside the 80% range
The race
Running total of dollars the model’s median was closer than “no change”, rewind by rewind. Above zero the model is ahead.
Final tally
+$227
Model ahead“No change” aheadSelected day
Neighbouring rewinds share most of their future, so the 519 rewinds amount to about 78 independent 20-day tests. Treat small differences as noise.
A backtest of past days only. Nothing here is a forecast of future prices or investment advice.